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According to University studies, unavoidable dry matter losses are up to 5% are expected even with hay stored indoors.  Severe spoilage and nutritional losses of up to 45% are to be expected to suffer even greater damage if left unprotected.

Outer layer losses can be substantial for even an apparently small depth of spoilage.  For example with a 4' diameter round bale, the outer 1" makes up 8% of the bale.  The outer 3" makes up 25% of the bale.  The outer 6" makes up 45% of the bale.  This means only 25% of the bale is in the center 2'!

The same holds true with a 6' diameter round bale.  The outer 1" makes up 5% of the bale.  The outer 3" makes up 15% of the bale.  The outer 6" makes up 30% of the bale.  Only 25% of the bale is in the center 3'!

This suggests that the smaller diameter bales will suffer proportionately more weathering losses than larger bales. 
However, in either case, University studies indicate that moisture infiltration and subsequent nutritional losses will be significantly reduced when covered by a quality tarp.

Note that although  the hay immediately beneath the weathered shell may appear to be fine, it will contain extensive mold growth and will not be readily eaten by livestock.  Total weathering losses always exceed what our initial glance might suggest.

Also ground moisture, which is pulled into the base of the bale by wick action, can easily double the amount of spoiled material normally expected in the outer layer losses.  A sloppy bale which tends to "squat" will place more of its base in contact with the ground, thereby increasing moisture absorption.  Significant reduction in moisture absorption can be achieved by stacking bales on a pad of stone or other material. 

University research and farmer experiences indicate that, depending on the year and length of the storage period, losses resulting from unprotected hay storage may total 45% more than hay stored indoors.


More Resources:
1. Did You Know?
2. Why Protect Bales?
3. Why Protect Bales?
4. Sizing Chart

5. Price List for Stocked Sizes